Okay, well before I get into poring over Nate Silver's 538 postings, I want to talk about a personal experience with poll numbers. In 2010, I was working on Rep. Chris Murphy's campaign. On the day before the election, I reported to Chris' New Britain office, as I did every Monday evening. There was something different about the "energy" in the place. People's faces were grim and there was a lot of whispering going on. I asked a staffer what was up. I was told that a poll (I think the Q, but I'm not sure) showed that Sam Caligiuri was up by 7%. Now, that's more than the margin of error and was seen as very bad news by the Murphy team.
The next day, sporting my red "Team Murphy" tee shirt and carrying a campaign sign, I reported to a polling place to greet voters. Murphy's mom, Cathy, was there too. We engaged in small talk as we stood and smiled at those arriving to vote, all the while avoiding the "elephant in the room;" the poll numbers. Finally, I decided to confront the issue. In my most empathic voice, I said, "Well, if Chris loses, we just have to trust that it's for the best, that there's something better ahead for him." Ms Murphy very graciously agreed.
Well, needless to say, Chris Murphy was elected. I was too embarrassed to go to the victory celebration that night, fearing I'd encounter MOM!
The subtitle of my blog used to be, "A skeptic's take on the 2012 election," but I messed around with the template, lost that phrase, and can't figure out how to get it back. Whatever. But the above story does help explain why I'm skeptical of polls. Let's see if Mr. Silver can change my mind.
No comments:
Post a Comment